UCL QF Draw Analysis - Barcelona vs PSG

The Champions League Quarter-final match-ups were drawn, and Barcelona will face Paris-Saint Germain on 9/10 April and 16/17 April.

After defeating Napoli in a 4-2 aggregate score, the Catalan giants enter the UCL quarter-finals for the first time in four years. The last time Barcelona beat Napoli 4-2 on aggregate, they faced the infamous 2-8 defeat against Bayern Munich.

This time, Barcelona are facing French giants PSG. A UCL title is still lacking for PSG, and it doesn’t seem like they will win it this year, with this year being their star-boy Mbappe’s final year at the Parc des Princes.

It was against PSG that Barcelona made the famous comeback - ‘La Remontada’. On 14th February 2017 during the first leg of UCL round-of-16, Barcelona lost 4-0 against Paris Saint-Germain. But during the second leg on 8th March 2017, Barcelona obliterated PSG by scoring 6 goals to Cavani’s lone goal. Barcelona won the match 6-5 on aggregate. This is regarded as the biggest comeback in UCL history. The Spanish term for ‘comeback’, ‘Remontada’ is often used to refer to Barcelona’s victory.

Analysis

PSG is a decent match-up for Barcelona, as the only player to fear is left-winger Kylian Mbappe. Ex-Barcelona right-flanker Ousmane Dembele is also a player to watch out for. Dembele betrayed Barcelona and joined hands with the French side. He has only scored 1 goal in 32 games, with 12 assists. Dembele may not score, but he might make cheeky passes into the danger area. Dembele could be substituted with Marco Asensio. At the centre of the French offensive could either be Gonçalo Ramos or Kolo Muani. The midfield consists of Lee Kang-In on the right, Vitinha in the middle and Fabian Ruiz on the left. The French defence features Achraf Hakimi, Lucas Hernández, Marquinhos, Lucas Beraldo, Nuno Mendes, and 18-year-old Warren Zaïre-Emery.

The defensive line might be difficult for Barcelona, with Lamine Yamal facing Mendes and Beraldo. On the left, if Ferran Torres is back, he will have to face Zaïre-Emery and Hernández. With Ferran back, Raphina might have to switch spots with Yamal, but that doesn’t seem possible as Xavi wouldn’t substitute Yamal during big games. That means he will have to be substituted at the left wing, meaning João Félix will have to stay on the bench. But judging from Raphina’s performance against Napoli, he could be the one warming the bench, as he missed lots of shots. But his shot off the cross-bar allowed Barcelona to double their lead within two minutes as Cancelo slotted the ball home. So it will be a tough decision for Xavi to make.

Barcelona’s midfield might feature Frenkie, as he is predicted to recover before the quarter-final clash. This means it would be the usual Frenkie-Christensen-Gündoğan midfield. Pedri is also predicted to be back around that time, but it is unlikely that the club will allow the 21-year-old to rush an injury, despite the gravity of the situation. Frenkie might be substituted with Fermin Lopez. Fermin broke the deadlock in the second leg, but Frenkie’s absence could be felt as Barcelona was losing the possession game, with Napoli leading in passes, passing accuracy and possession. Frenkie is an irreplaceable asset to Barcelona, and the club will make the most of him. Undoubtedly the best player Barcelona has. Christensen has to improvise in the #5 position, as the club has lacked a defensive midfielder ever since the exit of veteran player Sergio Busquets. Gündoğan will be backing the left, being one of Barcelona’s most consistent players this season.

Barcelona’s defence was world-class against Napoli, with the defensive line resisting the oppression of Napoli’s dynamic duo, Osimhen and Kvaratskhelia. Player of the match, 17-year-old Pau Cubarsí proved to be the key defender in keeping Osimhen at bay.

The defence will have to prioritize targeting Mbappe. Even if he is left unmarked for a minute, it will prove fatal to Barcelona. Kounde and Araujo will face the world-cup-winning Frenchman, but Xavi might subject Cubarsí to face the 24-year-old. Barcelona has to make playing against Mbappe a common sight as the Frenchman is certain to cut ties with PSG and sign for evergreen rivals Real Madrid. Joao Cancelo will most likely play as an auxiliary winger on the left.

German wall Ter Stegen was cracked against Napoli, making insane saves. He was however unable to safeguard the cheeky goal from Napoli defender Amir Rrahmani.

Playstyle

Mbappe is an explosive player, with clinical finishing, dangerous dribbling and extraordinary speed. He doesn’t pass the ball much, instead tries to go in alone. He will not cut back from the left unless Barcelona defenders close in on him. He will only cross the ball if necessary. The 24-year-old will always try to dribble towards the danger area, where Araujo and Cubarsí are expected to step in to keep the winger at bay. Dembele will most certainly cut back and try to pass the ball towards the centre or make a high cross. He will only proceed to the danger area if there is a clear chance.

Barcelona’s playstyle has to be balanced. While preventing Mbappe from entering the penalty area, Barcelona has to push past the French defence to find a breakthrough. The defence might prove to be a little tricky for Barcelona, but Lamine Yamal could dribble into the centre and take his chances, or pass to Lewandowski. If Ferran starts on the left, he could cut back to the centre and pass to Lewandowski, who could finish. The wingers can try to exploit the weakness of the defence to find an opening. If they can at least reach the end, they should send a cross for Lewandowski to finish.

Progressions

Barcelona could progress into the semi-finals, where they would have to face either Atlético Madrid or Borussia Dortmund. It will most likely be Atléti, as they have been on form this season, even beating Serie A leaders Inter Milan. Barcelona are playing Atléti on March 18 in La Liga. The Catalan giants must analyse their opponents very well for a possible semi-final clash. If Barcelona progresses to the final, it is going to be either Bayern or City. Bayern are playing Arsenal and City are playing Real Madrid. Bayern have had a history of humiliating Arsenal, Bayern will move to the semis. City and Real will have a tough game. The biggest problem Madrid faces is that they lack a number 9. City has the world’s best striker, Haaland, with phenomenal midfield, including Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri. City has a strong defence and a strong attack, with Haaland and Foden. If Real puts in their best, they can put in a tough fight against City. But City will likely move forward to face Bayern. Bayern vs City is a difficult one. Bayern has undoubtedly one of the best squads in the world, and so does City. Both of them have the best strikers in the world. So Barcelona will have to face either Bayern or City in the Champions League final.

Closing thoughts

Barcelona are battling two ex-members of the club, Ousmane Dembele and manager Luis Enrique. This match is winnable for Barcelona if they put in their very best and the defenders mark Mbappe. The Bluagrana have to just dominate the midfield, as they have the cutting edge over their French counterparts. If Frenkie De Jong is back in time, Barcelona will win. Araujo, Cubarsí, Kounde and Cancelo are Barcelona’s hopes for this game. Cancelo shouldn’t play auxiliary winger but should prioritize marking Dembele.

This is the best UCL campaign Barcelona has had in years, and the Catalan giants have a fairly decent chance of winning their sixth.